Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Niels J. de Winter; Julia Tindall; Andrew L.A. Johnson; Barbara Goudsmit-Harzevoort; Nina Wichern; Pim Kaskes; Philippe Claeys; Fynn Huygen; Sonja van Leeuwen; Brett Metcalfe; Pepijn Bakker; Stijn Goolaerts; Frank Wesselingh; Martin Ziegler

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Niels J. de Winter^*, Julia Tindall, Andrew L.A. Johnson, Barbara Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Nina Wichern, Pim Kaskes, Philippe Claeys, Fynn Huygen, Sonja van Leeuwen, Brett Metcalfe, Pepijn Bakker, Stijn Goolaerts, Frank Wesselingh, Martin Ziegler

^*Corresponding author for this work

Systems and Synthetic Biology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

Original language	English
Article number	eadl6717
Journal	Science Advances
Volume	10
Issue number	20
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717
Publication status	Published - 15 May 2024

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Cite this

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title = "Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world",

abstract = "Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe{\textquoteright}s future.",

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T1 - Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

AU - de Winter, Niels J.

AU - Tindall, Julia

AU - Johnson, Andrew L.A.

AU - Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara

AU - Wichern, Nina

AU - Kaskes, Pim

AU - Claeys, Philippe

AU - Huygen, Fynn

AU - van Leeuwen, Sonja

AU - Metcalfe, Brett

AU - Bakker, Pepijn

AU - Goolaerts, Stijn

AU - Wesselingh, Frank

AU - Ziegler, Martin

PY - 2024/5/15

Y1 - 2024/5/15

N2 - Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

AB - Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

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VL - 10

JO - Science Advances

JF - Science Advances

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M1 - eadl6717

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Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

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