Agricultural trade liberalisation and greenhouse gas emissions : a simulation study using the GTAP-IMAGE modelling framework

This report explores the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions and on changing commodity production areas by coupling of the modeling tools GTAP and IMAGE. Four scenarios are explored with developments up tot 2050. The scenarios include a baseline, full liberalisation and two partial liberalisation scenarios for which the latter scenarios include removal of trade barriers or removal of milk quota by 2015 only. The results indicate that liberalisation leads to a further increase in greenhouse gas emissions adding to an already observed increase in emissions observed in the baseline scenario. CO2 emission increase is caused by vegetation clearance due to a rapid expansion of agricultural areas in South America and South East Asia. Increased methane emissions are also calculated in these areas caused by less intensive cattle farming. Global production of the commodities milk, dairy and beef does not change between full liberalisation and the baseline but clear shifts from North America and Europe to South America and South East Asia are expected.