Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target

Stefan Frank, Petr Havlík, Elke Stehfest, Hans van Meijl, Peter Witzke, Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez, Michiel van Dijk, Jonathan C. Doelman, Thomas Fellmann, Jason F.L. Koopman, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin

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Abstract

Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)66-72
Number of pages7
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019

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agriculture
mitigation
nitrous oxide
structural change
savings
livestock
stabilization
methane
emission reduction
carbon
climate
price
emission source

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Frank, S., Havlík, P., Stehfest, E., van Meijl, H., Witzke, P., Pérez-Domínguez, I., ... Valin, H. (2019). Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target. Nature Climate Change, 9(1), 66-72. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8
Frank, Stefan ; Havlík, Petr ; Stehfest, Elke ; van Meijl, Hans ; Witzke, Peter ; Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio ; van Dijk, Michiel ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo. / Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target. In: Nature Climate Change. 2019 ; Vol. 9, No. 1. pp. 66-72.
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abstract = "Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12{\%} of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8{\%} of current GHG emissions.",
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Frank, S, Havlík, P, Stehfest, E, van Meijl, H, Witzke, P, Pérez-Domínguez, I, van Dijk, M, Doelman, JC, Fellmann, T, Koopman, JFL, Tabeau, A & Valin, H 2019, 'Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target' Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 66-72. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8

Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target. / Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Stehfest, Elke; van Meijl, Hans; Witzke, Peter; Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Fellmann, Thomas; Koopman, Jason F.L.; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 1, 01.01.2019, p. 66-72.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target

AU - Frank, Stefan

AU - Havlík, Petr

AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - van Meijl, Hans

AU - Witzke, Peter

AU - Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio

AU - van Dijk, Michiel

AU - Doelman, Jonathan C.

AU - Fellmann, Thomas

AU - Koopman, Jason F.L.

AU - Tabeau, Andrzej

AU - Valin, Hugo

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N2 - Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

AB - Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

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JO - Nature Climate Change

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SN - 1758-678X

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