Achtergrondrapport referentiescenario’s natuurverkenning 2050

In mid-2020 the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and Wageningen University & Research (WUR) published an interim report on the Nature Outlook 2050. This contained two reference scenarios to inform the strategic choices to be made in the government’s nature policy: ‘Business as Usual’ and ‘Higher Ambition’. Estimates have been made of the effects of both scenarios on the objectives of the Birds and Habitats Directives, as well as their possible effects on the delivery of ecosystem services. The present report describes the technical background to these scenarios and the calculated indicators and explains the reasoning behind the methods used. The choices and assumptions made during the development of the scenarios are described. Consideration is given to the uncertainties surrounding these assumptions and the available knowledge, and what these uncertainties mean for the results and the policy messages contained in the interim report.