Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Brian C. O’Neill; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie Ebi; Paula A. Harrison; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Elmar Kriegler; Benjamin L. Preston; Keywan Riahi; Jana Sillmann; Bas J. van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; David Carlisle; Cecilia Conde; Jan Fuglestvedt; Carole Green; Tomoko Hasegawa; Julia Leininger; Seth Monteith; Ramon Pichs-Madruga

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Brian C. O’Neill^*, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie Ebi, Paula A. Harrison, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Benjamin L. Preston, Keywan Riahi, Jana Sillmann, Bas J. van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, David Carlisle, Cecilia Conde, Jan Fuglestvedt, Carole Green, Tomoko Hasegawa, Julia Leininger, Seth Monteith, Ramon Pichs-Madruga

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

305 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1074-1084
Number of pages	11
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
Publication status	Published - Dec 2020

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

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305 Citations
1 Comment/Letter to the editor

Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
O’Neill, B. C., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K., Harrison, P. A., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kok, K., Kriegler, E., Preston, B. L., Riahi, K., Sillmann, J., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D., Carlisle, D., Conde, C., Fuglestvedt, J., Green, C., Hasegawa, T., Leininger, J., Monteith, S. & Pichs-Madruga, R., Mar 2021, In: Nature Climate Change. 11, 3, p. 274
Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/Letter to the editor › Academic

1 Citation (Scopus)

2 Finished

ENGAGE: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions
1/09/19 → 31/12/23
Project: EU research project
CD-LINKS: Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing
1/09/15 → 30/09/19
Project: EU research project

Cite this

O’Neill, B. C., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K., Harrison, P. A., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kok, K., Kriegler, E., Preston, B. L., Riahi, K., Sillmann, J., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D., Carlisle, D., Conde, C., Fuglestvedt, J., Green, C., Hasegawa, T., Leininger, J., Monteith, S., & Pichs-Madruga, R. (2020). Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change, 10(12), 1074-1084. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

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title = "Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework",

abstract = "Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.",

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O’Neill, BC, Carter, TR, Ebi, K, Harrison, PA, Kemp-Benedict, E, Kok, K, Kriegler, E, Preston, BL, Riahi, K, Sillmann, J, van Ruijven, BJ, van Vuuren, D, Carlisle, D, Conde, C, Fuglestvedt, J, Green, C, Hasegawa, T, Leininger, J, Monteith, S & Pichs-Madruga, R 2020, 'Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework', Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, no. 12, pp. 1074-1084. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

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T1 - Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

AU - O’Neill, Brian C.

AU - Carter, Timothy R.

AU - Ebi, Kristie

AU - Harrison, Paula A.

AU - Kemp-Benedict, Eric

AU - Kok, Kasper

AU - Kriegler, Elmar

AU - Preston, Benjamin L.

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Sillmann, Jana

AU - van Ruijven, Bas J.

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

AU - Carlisle, David

AU - Conde, Cecilia

AU - Fuglestvedt, Jan

AU - Green, Carole

AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko

AU - Leininger, Julia

AU - Monteith, Seth

AU - Pichs-Madruga, Ramon

PY - 2020/12

Y1 - 2020/12

N2 - Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

AB - Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

UR - https://doi.org/10.7927/hn96-9703

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

DO - 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

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VL - 10

SP - 1074

EP - 1084

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 12

ER -

Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Abstract

UN SDGs

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Research output

Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Projects

ENGAGE: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions

CD-LINKS: Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing

Cite this