Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World

S. Bathiany, M. Scheffer, E.H. Van Nes, M.S. Williamson, T.M. Lenton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.
Original languageEnglish
Article number5040
JournalScientific Reports
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2018

Fingerprint

climate change
ecosystem
climate
Milankovitch cycle
timescale
climate oscillation
terrestrial ecosystem
diurnal variation
sea ice
monsoon
oscillation
simulation
world
loss

Cite this

Bathiany, S. ; Scheffer, M. ; Van Nes, E.H. ; Williamson, M.S. ; Lenton, T.M. / Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World. In: Scientific Reports. 2018 ; Vol. 8, No. 1.
@article{5406347d59dc4734a6aef8b3e4076ac7,
title = "Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World",
abstract = "The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.",
author = "S. Bathiany and M. Scheffer and {Van Nes}, E.H. and M.S. Williamson and T.M. Lenton",
year = "2018",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1038/s41598-018-23377-4",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
journal = "Scientific Reports",
issn = "2045-2322",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",

}

Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World. / Bathiany, S.; Scheffer, M.; Van Nes, E.H.; Williamson, M.S.; Lenton, T.M.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, No. 1, 5040, 01.12.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World

AU - Bathiany, S.

AU - Scheffer, M.

AU - Van Nes, E.H.

AU - Williamson, M.S.

AU - Lenton, T.M.

PY - 2018/12/1

Y1 - 2018/12/1

N2 - The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

AB - The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

U2 - 10.1038/s41598-018-23377-4

DO - 10.1038/s41598-018-23377-4

M3 - Article

VL - 8

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

SN - 2045-2322

IS - 1

M1 - 5040

ER -