A potential feedback loop underlying glacial-interglacial cycles

The sawtooth-patterned glacial-interglacial cycles in the Earth’s atmospheric temperature are a well-known, though poorly understood phenomenon. Pinpointing the relevant mechanisms behind these cycles will not only provide insights into past climate dynamics, but also help predict possible future responses of the Earth system to changing CO₂ levels. Previous work on this phenomenon suggests that the most important underlying mechanisms are interactions between marine biological production, ocean circulation, temperature and dust. So far, interaction directions (i.e., what causes what) have remained elusive. In this paper, we apply Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) to analyze paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic records to elucidate which mechanisms proposed in the literature play an important role in glacial-interglacial cycles, and to test the directionality of interactions. We find causal links between ocean ventilation, biological productivity, benthic δ¹⁸O and dust, consistent with some but not all of the mechanisms proposed in the literature. Most importantly, we find evidence for a potential feedback loop from ocean ventilation to biological productivity to climate back to ocean ventilation. Here, we propose the hypothesis that this feedback loop of connected mechanisms could be the main driver for the glacial-interglacial cycles.