A novel macroeconomic modelling assessment of food loss and waste in the EU: An application to the sustainable development goal of halving household food waste

As part of a package of measures to alleviate pressures on our planetary boundaries, the European Union farm-to-fork strategy adopts target 12.3 of the sustainable development goals, with the aim of halving food waste by 2030. A quantification of medium-term changes in food loss and waste (FLW) by both food supply chain stage and member state, as well as the cradle-to-grave market impacts from proposed reductions, requires a suitably tailored simulation model. A systems wide approach (MAGNET) with a novel characterisation of FLW behaviour is employed and linked to recent detailed Eurostat FLW estimates. In addition to business-as-usual baseline estimates of FLW to 2030, a scenario assesses the sustainability and circularity impacts from halving food waste via waste behaviour taxes. From 2020 to 2030, baseline EU average per capita FLW grows less than anticipated due to changing household consumption patterns in the newer EU member states. Similarly, by 2030 the share of food losses in total FLW appears to grow. Compared with the baseline in 2030, halving household food waste reduces EU FLW by 17.5 million tonnes. Despite the introduction of targeted food waste behaviour taxes, the average relative EU food price still falls by 2 %. In addition, lower levels of EU emissions- and land leakage are reported, whilst the reduction in bio-waste streams for fertiliser does not incur higher fossil fertiliser uptake due to falling EU crop production. Concluding, the rising projected share of food losses in the baseline signals a need for reinforced stakeholder communication and coordination strategies which are receiving less attention than consumer behaviour, hindering efficient responses to mitigate FLW. Finally, to increase the social acceptance of waste behaviour taxes and mitigate anticipated losses to EU farmers, a policy of channelling tax proceeds to supporting incomes and employment retraining schemes should be publicly visible.