A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Shinichiro Fujimori*, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason F.L. Koopman, Hans van Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander PoppAndreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Detlef van Vuuren

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)386-396
Number of pages11
JournalNature Sustainability
Volume2
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 May 2019

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