A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Shinichiro Fujimori*, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason F.L. Koopman, Hans van Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander Popp & 3 others Andreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Detlef van Vuuren

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)386-396
Number of pages11
JournalNature Sustainability
Volume2
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 May 2019

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climate policy
Food Supply
Climate Change
food security
Climate
Climate change
mitigation
climate change
environmental policy
climate
food
model comparison
hunger
gross domestic product
costs
land values
UNO
sustainable development
agriculture
Gross Domestic Product

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Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Bodirsky, B. L., ... van Vuuren, D. (2019). A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. Nature Sustainability, 2(5), 386-396. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2
Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Krey, Volker ; Riahi, Keywan ; Bertram, Christoph ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Callen, Jessica ; Després, Jacques ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; van Meijl, Hans ; Ochi, Yuki ; Popp, Alexander ; Schmitz, Andreas ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; van Vuuren, Detlef. / A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. In: Nature Sustainability. 2019 ; Vol. 2, No. 5. pp. 386-396.
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abstract = "Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18{\%} of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.",
author = "Shinichiro Fujimori and Tomoko Hasegawa and Volker Krey and Keywan Riahi and Christoph Bertram and Bodirsky, {Benjamin Leon} and Valentina Bosetti and Jessica Callen and Jacques Despr{\'e}s and Jonathan Doelman and Laurent Drouet and Johannes Emmerling and Stefan Frank and Oliver Fricko and Petr Havlik and Florian Humpen{\"o}der and Koopman, {Jason F.L.} and {van Meijl}, Hans and Yuki Ochi and Alexander Popp and Andreas Schmitz and Kiyoshi Takahashi and {van Vuuren}, Detlef",
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Fujimori, S, Hasegawa, T, Krey, V, Riahi, K, Bertram, C, Bodirsky, BL, Bosetti, V, Callen, J, Després, J, Doelman, J, Drouet, L, Emmerling, J, Frank, S, Fricko, O, Havlik, P, Humpenöder, F, Koopman, JFL, van Meijl, H, Ochi, Y, Popp, A, Schmitz, A, Takahashi, K & van Vuuren, D 2019, 'A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation', Nature Sustainability, vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 386-396. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. / Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bosetti, Valentina; Callen, Jessica; Després, Jacques; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F.L.; van Meijl, Hans; Ochi, Yuki; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Andreas; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; van Vuuren, Detlef.

In: Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, No. 5, 13.05.2019, p. 386-396.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro

AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Bertram, Christoph

AU - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon

AU - Bosetti, Valentina

AU - Callen, Jessica

AU - Després, Jacques

AU - Doelman, Jonathan

AU - Drouet, Laurent

AU - Emmerling, Johannes

AU - Frank, Stefan

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Havlik, Petr

AU - Humpenöder, Florian

AU - Koopman, Jason F.L.

AU - van Meijl, Hans

AU - Ochi, Yuki

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Schmitz, Andreas

AU - Takahashi, Kiyoshi

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

PY - 2019/5/13

Y1 - 2019/5/13

N2 - Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

AB - Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

U2 - 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

DO - 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

M3 - Article

VL - 2

SP - 386

EP - 396

JO - Nature Sustainability

JF - Nature Sustainability

SN - 2398-9629

IS - 5

ER -

Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Krey V, Riahi K, Bertram C, Bodirsky BL et al. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. Nature Sustainability. 2019 May 13;2(5):386-396. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2