A high-resolution multi-decadal assessment of agricultural drought risk pathways in India

Agricultural drought poses a significant challenge to India’s food security and economic sustainability. This study moves beyond traditional static risk assessments, which provide a single snapshot of vulnerability based on long-term average. We developed a dynamic, high-resolution (5 km) analysis that tracks the evolution of agricultural drought risk over four distinct decades (1983–2023). We utilized the well-established hydrological model to generate a validated 41 year daily soil moisture dataset, forming the basis of our hazard assessment. A dynamic agricultural drought risk index (ADRI) was constructed using the analytic hierarchy process to integrate evolving indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity calculated for four distinct decades. K-means clustering analysis of the decadal risk trajectories identified four distinct risk pathways. Our findings revealed a fundamental eastward shift in drought risk, with Eastern and Northeastern India emerging as new high-risk areas, a trend primarily driven by increasing drought hazards through exposure. The analysis classified India’s districts into chronic hotspots (24%), emerging hotspots (16%), improving resilience (39%), and stable and resilient (21%). The identification of these pathways provides a powerful evidence-based framework that moves beyond reactive crisis management, enabling targeted, proactive, and regionally appropriate drought policies to build a more climate-resilient agricultural future.