Using simulation modelling to improve food safety: the case of Campylobacter contamination in poultry (CAMPYNAMICS)

Campylobacteriosis is still the most frequently reported foodborne disease in Europe and it is not yet under control. It is estimated that Campylobacter infection leads to nine million zoonosis cases among Europeans each year. In the Netherlands, approximately 66% of human campylobacteriosis cases are attributed to contamination from chicken. Current biosecurity measures to reduce Campylobacter occurrence challenge farmers because of the complexity in transmission cycles and lack of understanding of the numerous underlying transmission mechanisms. To solve the complex problem of Campylobacter transmission on chicken farms, it is necessary to increase understanding of transmission mechanisms, propose and quantify impact of biosecurity measures, and assure their implementation. A unique characteristic of the proposal is the use of simulation modelling system dynamics (SD) coupled with stakeholder engagement to build a basis for an SD model. We will engage farmers and scientists to develop computer simulations to investigate the efficacy of measures to help farmers mitigate this food safety threat. Unlike common models in microbial risk analysis, SD models can incorporate dynamic characteristics, such as seasonality, which is very relevant in the Campylobacter case. Effective biosecurity measures can have a positive impact on Campylobacter reduction on farms and throughout the food chain.