The first HPAI outbreak in Western Java took place in 2004. Initial efforts to eradicate HPAI in Western Java were not successful. As a consequence, the disease has become endemic in the region. Mitigating HPAI is a more realistic aim for the Indonesian government than eradication given the current endemic situation and the limited resources of the Indonesian government. Mitigation efforts focus on the uptake of preventive measures by poultry farmers and other actors in the value chain. However, uptake of HPAI prevention in farmer communities has been low, especially among small-scale and backyard farmers. Furthermore, the existence of sick bird markets, where farmers can sell their sick chickens, be it at a much lower price, disincentivizes farmers to prevent outbreaks and, consequently, maintains HPAI circulation in the region
The objective of this thesis was to provide information about factors that could improve the uptake of prevention and control measures against HPAI and quantify the farm-level effects of various on-farm HPAI mitigation strategies in the context of Western Java broiler farms.
First, the preference of local governments to implement HPAI mitigation measures was mapped by defining priority measures of local governments for their administrative area in Western Java. Second, farmers’ attitudes and intentions to implement different HPAI mitigation measures were studied to understand socio-psychological and socio-demographic factors that motivate them to implement said measures on their farms. The insights from the first two steps provided a basis for designing various possible on-farm HPAI mitigation strategies for smallholder broiler farms. Third, a farm-level bio-economic simulation model was developed to quantify the economic and epidemiological effects of farm-level outbreaks of HPAI.
The primary aims of the government were to safeguard humans from HPAI transmission by mitigating HPAI disease in livestock. The measures with the highest priority were preventive vaccination of poultry and biosecurity.
Likewise, using the Theory of Planned Behavior, we identified that smallholder broiler farmers are in favor of implementing preventive measures (i.e., C&D and vaccination) on HPAI control over facing the consequences of control measures (i.e., stamping-out), and HPAI control programs should primarily focus on incentivizing farmers complemented by programs aiming to improve farmers’ attitude. Unexpectedly, we identified subtypes of price-contract (i.e., revenues based on contract selling price and live bird weight) and makloon-contract (i.e., revenues based on management fee per bird) schemes. We identified these new subtypes as extended price-contract and extended makloon-contract schemes. These extended subtypes included issues related to animal health management and payment schemes.
A dynamic stochastic bio-economic simulation model was developed to simulate epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks on a typical Western Java smallholder broiler farm. On-farm economic consequences of a typical HPAI outbreak for a farm of 3,000 broilers range from, on average, 0.16 to 63.8 million IDR (€10 to €3988.8) and depend on the business type, reaction of the farmer, and moment of infection. For independent and price-contract farm business types, the largest economic consequences of an HPAI outbreak could be as much as 13 times their average gross margin (5.28 million IDR or €330). While, for makloon farmers, the largest economic consequences of an HPAI outbreak were only around as much as 0.4 times their average gross margin (4.34 million IDR or €271.25). Reacting to an outbreak by selling chickens early gave the lowest economic losses, incentivizing farmers to engage in behavior with a high disease transmission risk. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the economic perspective of individual farmers when designing HPAI mitigation programs.
The effects of the mitigation strategy were different for different farm business types and might be different under different HPAI likelihood of infection. Vaccination-based strategies that, as a trade-off, are more expensive than biosecurity-based strategies, were better in reducing the epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks in all farm business types. Furthermore, promising vaccination-based strategies were different for independent and price-contract farms compared to makloon farms. This finding suggests that a potential conflict of interest in HPAI mitigation will arise. This study suggests that involvement of intermediaries is needed to improve HPAI mitigation in Western Java.