Socio-economic analysis of garlic planting ban policy and local response measures in Erhai Lake basin- based on sustainable livelihood analysis and propensity score matching

Erhai Lake located in Dali City, Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, is the "mother lake of local people. However, the water quality of Erhai Lake has been threatened by serious agricultural non-point source pollution recently. Garlic is regarded as the main crop causing pollution due to its characteristics of "high water—high chemical fertilizer—high pesticide". Since 2018, the Dali government has continued to ban the cultivation of garlic. This policy has had a significant impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers, many of whom have been forced to transfer their livelihood structure. Governments at all levels are also actively solving this problem, accelerating land transfer, and carrying out large-scale management; vigorously adjust the industrial structure and promote green and ecological planting. The actual effect and promotion degree of solution need to be verified. Guided by the sustainable livelihood framework, this research constructs an analysis framework for the changes of smallholder farmers' livelihood strategies. It plans to use the survey data of governments at all levels and garlic farmers in the Erhai Lake basin who have changed their production and business, use the binary logistic model and the propensity score matching to empirically analyse the impact of the garlic planting ban policy, and explore the short-term compensation and long-term mechanism of local governments to promote farmers' livelihoods, clarify the impact of alternative planting on farmers' livelihood strategies, livelihood assets and livelihood outcomes. Finally, summarize the results, put forward policy recommendations and explore feasible practices for the Erhai Lake basin.