Seasonal to decadal forecasting services for Thailand

Climate change is one of the stressful challenges that affect human well-being of millions of people across the globe. Thailand, as an important agricultural country, is considered to be one of the most sensitive to the changes in climate conditions because the agricultural sector and the hydrological system are both vulnerable to seasonal climate variability. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with its potentially extreme impacts, influences seasonal climate, further modulated by climate change, and becomes an important issue that possibly negatively affects many parts of the globe. These uncertainties in seasonal climate cause the agricultural sector to be more vulnerable. Recently, sub-seasonal-to seasonal (S2S) climate prediction systems have been set up with improved forecast skills, potentially providing early warning of high impact climate events. However, there are limited studies that look specifically into how seasonal climate and the ENSO phenomenon relationship under climate change affects agricultural activities in Thailand. Furthermore, adaptation strategies to these issues are required to sustain such agricultural productivity, improve crop performance and human livelihood. This PhD thesis aims to evaluate the impact of seasonal climate associated with the ENSO variations on crops and the hydrological system in Thailand using seasonal climate forecast tools in combination with hydrological and crop models. The effective tools for climate forecast will be studied. At the same time, strategies for sustainable agricultural management will also be explored for the agricultural sector of Thailand.