Nature-based transitions: quantifying soil suitability and water availability for regenerated sandy-soil landscapes

Extreme drought and flood events are expected to become frequent and intense with climate change in the Sandy Soil Landscapes (SSL) of the Netherlands. The declining groundwater table caused by meteorological drought and anthropogenic activities (like intensive drainage and groundwater extraction) is putting land use and biodiversity at risk. Currently, spatial planning hardly considers natural soil and water systems, making the SSL unsustainable for the future. Thus, there is a need for paradigm shift: land use should align with natural potential rather than human needs. For this, understanding how landscapes function with-out/minimal human influence is crucial to apply the natural principles for future climate-robust land use planning. Therefore, a study will be conducted in the Dutch SSL with the aim of 1) developing spatially explicit quantitative understanding of natural soil-water land use system and its associated factors; 2) assessing the impact of climate change and land use variability on groundwater and 3) identifying future land use based on inherent capacity of the soil and water system. The methodology involves reconstructing groundwater levels and relevant hydrology from the Holocene, employing a combination of numerical modelling and field observations. Factors influencing groundwater fluctuations will be assessed and quantified. To gain future perspective, groundwater level and its availability will be estimated considering change in climate and land use. These insights will be employed to identify ‘ optimum land use’ such as cropland, grassland, nature, etc. that fits the natural system. This research seeks to expand the method of palaeo-groundwater reconstructions and promote nature-based solutions.