NAPRO KD-2017-062_EU-27 Agrodynamiek na de Brexit (BO-43-014.01-016, BO-20-019-074)

The decision to leave the European Union (EU) is a game changer for UK’s relationship with the EU. Among other things, the Brexit vote opens a series of questions for both sides’ agricultural sector around trade, such as which tariffs will be applied, non-tariff trade related regulations will be affected and how these changes will affect EU27-UK trade relations. Huge uncertainty hangs over these while the EU negotiates UK’s departure from the EU, the most immediate and pressing challenge being to determine what relationship might be entered into in terms of access to each other’s market. In order to have an informed base for discussing impacts on its own agricultural sector, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs requests to run post-Brexit scenarios showing the impacts on trade flows affecting the Dutch agricultural sector.

Wageningen Economic Research will elaborate three scenarios specified in this proposal and estimate in quantitative terms the outcomes on the agricultural sector’s production, use and trade. The scenario analysis will be conducted by using an economic sector model. The quantitative results will be qualified, based on the sector expertise Wageningen Economic Research has in-house. Model results will be complemented by case studies that will highlight seasonality, market structure and product differentiation as important factors impacting post-Brexit trade flows.

 

The results of the study will be drafted in a concise report on the impact of post-Brexit scenarios on the Dutch agricultural sector. After delivery of the final report Wageningen Economic Research will present outcomes of the study to Ministry representatives