Impact of deforestation and landscape diversity on the water cycle in Amazonia (KB-14-003-003)

Several lines of evidence point to the existence of thresholds in the Amazon region, around 40% deforestation and 3 degrees climatic warming, beyond which the major ecosystem services of the Amazon ( water cycling, carbon uptake, biodiversity, productivity) could transit to a strongly degraded system. So far this is based on many assumptions. This project will test both the assumptions and these forecasts, by determining indicators which can be used to foresee the immeinence of degradation. It is important to identify such thresholds better and spatially more explicitly, and to analyse how socio-economical developments, land-use changes and policies interact with them. It is a large scientific challenge to analyse the resilience and tipping points for this region in an integrated biogeochemical-socioeconomical context. This is what this project aims to do.