Epitools (KB-12-005.01-045)

Introduction of notifiable animal diseases like classical swine fever (CSF), foot and mouth disease (FMD) and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) into a free country asks for a swift response to prevent spread of the disease and to prevent severe economic losses. Crucial for a successful control and eradication of outbreaks is early detection and elimination of infection sources and limiting the spread of infection to susceptible animals in the population. Especially in the beginning of an epidemic, in a situation with few and incomplete data, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty with respect to the nature and severity of the problem. Despite this uncertainty, and on the basis of incomplete data, decision still have to be made to stop the epidemic. The aim of this project is to develop state-of-the-art EpiTools to support policy makers and the eradication organisation during an evolving epidemic of CSF, FMD or HPAI. These tools are based on epidemiological models and help to take science-based decisions in a situation with few and incomplete data and large uncertainty with respect to the nature and severity of the problem. An important element is to get the EpiTools operational, meaning that they are ready to be used at the start of an epidemic. The most important policy questions of the eradication organisation and the Ministry of Economic Affairs during an epidemic are:

1. Since when is the infection present in the country/ present on the first infected farms?
2. Is it possible to provide a priority list of farms to be screened in the protection and surveillance zone around an outbreak (and possibly of to be vaccinated herds and of herds to be culled pre-emptively ?)
3. Is this going to be large or a small epidemic? What will be the length of the epidemic?
4. Can we postpone or skip an emergency vaccination ?
5. Are applied control measures effective (R < 1)?

EpiTools will be developed to answer these specific questions.