Climate change will necessitate adjustments in ecosystem management in order to maintain the functioning of ecosystems and the supply of ecosystem services. The aim of this project is to develop a spatially explicit, dynamic modelling approach for identifying and analysing adaptation strategies for ecosystem management.
In particular, the project will develop and apply a general, spatial model integrating climate change scenarios, ecosystem dynamics, response thresholds, ecosystem services supply and management options. The scientific innovation of the project lies in the application of an ecosystem services approach to analyse adaptation options, the integration of complex ecosystem dynamics and societal impacts, and the spatially explicit modelling of economic benefits supplied by ecosystems.
The general model will be tested and validated on the basis of three case studies, focussing on: (i) flood protection in the Netherlands; (ii) impacts of climate change in northern Norway; and (iii) optimising land use including production of biofuels stock in Kalimantan, Indonesia. The first two areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the third area is relevant because of its importance as a source of biofuel (palmoil) with associated environmental and social impacts. Each case study will be implemented in collaboration with local and international partners, and will result in the identification of economic efficient, sustainable and equitable local adaptation options.