Diagnosing drought for dealing with drought in 3D: Toolbox for increasing drought preparedness of actors in water and climate governance, starting from north-eastern Brazil

Drought affects more people than any other hazard today, and its impact is likely to further increase. Yet, means to induce, aggravate or alleviate drought are also in human hands. People’s use of water, water management, and trade have consequences for spatiotemporal patterns of drought. For example, technologies for managing water supply and demand may create new vulnerabilities or interrupt supplies elsewhere. To manage drought better, human influences on drought must be better understood. Current frameworks for drought monitoring and water accounting focus on the natural boundary conditions and therefore offer little help in distilling human influences on drought. This project combines insights from socio-hydrology and water management to produce an entirely new approach, incorporating the study of water-related human dimensions, socio-hydrological dynamics, and the structuring of dialogues among actors. The project will develop and test the integrated, participatory 3D Drought Diagnosis toolbox. We will investigate nested scale levels, related to local water resources and virtual-water transfers together with actor networks of users, managers, traders, and policymakers. Test case is the poor, drought-affected north-east of Brazil. Finally, the 3D Drought Diagnosis toolbox can be used to enable existing drought monitors to provide contextualized information in drought-affected regions worldwide. This research advances theoretical knowledge on human influences on drought. Tools based on this knowledge will empower actors to take timely and informed actions for anticipating and responding to drought. As such, lessons learnt from past droughts will be used to promote sustainable water management, enhance food security, and foster inclusive development.