Challenging the dogma of tick-borne disease transmission: can the expansion of a rodent species trigger the outbreak of tick-borne encephalitis virus?

Tick-borne encephalitis virus is a human pathogen that unexpectedly emerged in the Netherlands in 2016. We argue that the current dogma on the transmission of the virus cannot explain its recent emergence. We therefore challenge current transmission theory and hypothesize that the expansion of the yellow-necked mouse is the driving factor for the spread of the virus into the Dutch ecosystem. We will experimentally study the transmission dynamics of the virus from infected mice to ticks. The outcome of this research can change the current understanding of tick-borne encephalitis virus disease ecology and its potential spread in the near future. The proposed study fits within the scope of NWA questions #5 and #96 which aim to understand the (ecological) factors that contribute to the spread of pathogens. The results of this research will be used by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), an important stakeholder in public health, to predict the spread and occurrence of this virus in the Netherlands. This, in turn, will provide guidance for risk communication and preventive measures towards general practitioners (GP’s), the public, and the Ministry of Health.