1-1C-1 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenario's (KB-34-003-001)

The focus in this project is on a WR model-based integral approach (toolbox), for forward looking, cross-sectoral assessments and scenario’s in the field of circular and climate positive society. Technical, economic, environmental and social processes and goals are examined together at different scales. The broad range of goals are based on the EU bioeconomy strategy, Blue Growth, climate agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. A key challenge is the link between the micro level at which technological developments and consumer preferences can be better assessed, and the macro level at which employment, economic growth, food security, climate and biodiversity impacts are determined including rebound, leakage and substitution effects. The toolbox will be further developed in 2022 with a focus on the further integration of existing and potentially new models included in this project to cover the climate case. Specifically, based on the model comparison results of 2021 we will introduce feedback loops and iteration between some of the models to fine tune the calibration and the model assumptions taking stock of the complementary strengths of more specialised models such as Marine model, Animal model and Food safety model.  This will be done by completing and deepening the Case III study, to assess the “Transition to a climate-neutral EU by 2050, and specifically the new policy direction towards a climate neutral AFOLU (Agriculture, forestry, and other land use) sector”. This case uses a broad integrated toolbox which covers not only agriculture, but also food processing, energy, chemicals and the marine fields. Given the focus on all land using sectors the integrated toolbox might be extended with a forestry model (e.g. Efiscan). The case study results will be prepared for a scientific journal paper as well as an online policy dashboard as a science-policy interface for a better outreach and valorisation. Furthermore, this case, will contribute to the European MACSUR SciPOl (science policy interface) project of the Joint European Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE JPI). Lessons learned regarding model integration will be fed into Task 5 on model integration of the Wageningen Modeling Group.