Agent based modelling to support policies on shrimp farming and mangrove in the Vietnamese Mekkong Delta

Hiep Tong Quoc (Speaker), Van Pham Dang Tri (Contributor), Ligtenberg, A. (Contributor), Bosma, R. (Contributor), Ha Tran Thi Phung (Contributor), Bregt, A. (Contributor)

Activity: Talk or presentationOral presentation

Description

Coastal zones are vulnerable to changes in ecology due to industries and
urbanization, and in upstream water sources and sea level. Designing policies
considering all aspects is challenging. NGO's advocate balancing ecology and
economy, while GO stimulates farmers to shift to intensive (INT) shrimp farming.
Most farmers intensify only part of their improved-extensive (IE) or integrated
mangrove shrimp (IMS) farms into so-called hybrid systems. Using an agent-based model a spatially explicit assessment of farmers' choices and local orientation was simulated for three areas and three scenarios. The baseline scenario, assuming the increase of INT due to GO policies, shows that planning fails due to a gap between the ambitions of local authorities and the outcomes for farmers. The Organic scenario confirmed the trend towards more INT while just maintaining IMS, despite financial support. In the Climate Change scenario, the income of shrimp farming decreased due to the increased risks.
Period8 Apr 201912 Apr 2019
Event title12th Asian Fisheries & Aquaculture Forum (AFAF): Transforming Asian Fisheries and Aquaculture for Sustainable Production and Nutrition
Event typeConference
LocationIloilo, Philippines